WASHINGTON — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently issued its winter weather outlook for the 2024-2025 season. It calls for above average temperatures and near average precipitation in the nation’s capital.
That’s significant since the last five winters featured below average snowfall.
One of the primary drivers of NOAA’s forecast is its expectation that weak La Nina conditions will develop.
The weak La Nina will, "emerge in September - November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025,” according to an Oct. 10 statement from NOAA. La Nina winters in the United States often feature a more northerly storm track that can lead to drier winters and less snow for the Mid-Atlantic Region.
La Nina conditions correlate to above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic with below average temperatures in the eastern Pacific, near Central America. Meanwhile, El Nino conditions are the opposite and bring above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical east Pacific and below average temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
There have been 12 winters with weak La Nina conditions since the 1950s, with the most recent being the 2022-2023 winter season.
As some Washingtonians may recall, that winter produced only 0.4 inches of snow, well below DC’s seasonal average of 13.7 inches. In fact, the nation’s capital has averaged only 9.4 inches of snow during these 12 weak La Nina winters.
Even during winters with above average temperatures and below average precipitation, the right ingredients have to come together only once to create an impactful winter storm for the DMV. That means a sufficiently cold air mass with a favorable storm track could bring abundant snowfall to the nation’s capital.
NOAA’s winter weather outlook is for warmer and drier than average conditions in the DMV, which is typical of La Nina winters. That doesn’t mean there won’t still be colder than average periods. My colleagues and I on the WUSA9 weather team will issue our winter weather outlook soon.
