WASHINGTON — It’s time to fill out your tournament bracket!
First things first ... trust the facts and stay away from your gut. The NCAA Tournament is hard as heck to predict but here are some tips to help you make your picks.
Bracket 101
If you look at your bracket you will notice that each team has a number next to its name. That seeding number gives you an idea of how good a team is. The higher seeds are the favorites and the lower seeds, like 15 or 16, are the underdogs.
Work backward
I would suggest filling out your bracket starting with the elite eight or final four first. It's critical to note that games become more valuable as the tournament progresses. So, if you pick the correct final four and champion, you’ll probably win the pool, no matter what happens in the previous rounds. According to BracketResearch.com, in the last 33 tournaments, the champion has been a top No. 3 seed.
Upset Alert
Best believe ... upsets do happen. That’s why they call it March Madness. However, let me make this very clear, do not pick a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed. Although it happened in 2018, when a 16 seed UMBC upset No. 1 seed, Virginia, the odds of that happening again is incredibly unlikely -- 1-139 to be exact.
A No. 1 is Not Always The Best Seed
Don’t pick all four No. 1 seeds to make the final four. There has only been one Final Four in which all four No. 1 seeds made it. That was in 2008, when Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA were all there.
Getting the Deuces
You may want to avoid picking all the No. 2 seeds to make the sweet sixteen. It’s only happened twice in the last 24 years.
Picking a No. 8 or No. 9 seed is a coin flip but pick them to lose in the next round. Rarely do they ever win the next round against a No. 1 seed. The Ringer found that from 2002 to 2018 the top seeds have won a combined 85% of their games against No. 8 or No. 9 seeded teams.
5 vs. 12 Matchup
Pick at least one No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed. 12 seeds have won at least one first-round game in 30 of the last 35 tournaments.
RELATED: Georgetown's winning chances | Stats show being a No. 12 seed could play in the Hoyas favor
The only times there wasn’t a 5-12 upset during that time: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
In 2019, Murray State, Oregon and Liberty all won as No. 12 seeds, and the Ducks made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
The message here? Numbers do lie ... sometimes.
Look at the Line
Look at the betting line. According to Oddshark, since 1996, the opening round favorite won 74.8% of the time. Teams favored by five points or more won 85.4 percent of the time. However, teams favored by less than five, only won 55.3% of games — that’s close to a coin flip.
The Best Coast
According to Sports Betting Dime, 21 of the past 22 NCAA champions have been schools from the eastern time zone.
Color Code
If you want make your picks based on team colors. Blue and maroon have had the most success in the tournament since 1985. FYI, Gonzaga, Michigan and Illinois are three of the favorites and have blue in the uniform color.
Mascots
If you’re making your picks based on mascots, you probably shouldn’t be picking brackets. However, mythical mascots are the most successful and dogs have a better record against cats. That settles that debate.
Don’t stress yourself out. This is not the SAT or Bar Exam. It’s the NCAA tournament. So it’s supposed to be fun — with a little trash-talking when you make the right pick.