BALTIMORE — According to the latest health department figures, local COVID-19 cases have dropped significantly in the last 2 weeks – nearly 60% in DC and about 75% in Maryland. Experts said while much of the Northeast has reached the peak omicron cases, other parts of the country like the South and Midwest will likely reach their peaks in the next 2 weeks.
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So, what comes after the surge?
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“What we saw, at least in the other countries, is that once cases hit their peak, they come down steeply,” explained Dr. Durbhakula, “Hopefully, by March, maybe even a little bit sooner, in March, we'll see these cases start to level out.”
According to the CDC COVID Data Dashboard, 99% of all COVID-19 cases in the U.S are due to the omicron variant. Dr. Durbhakula said there are likely three reasons why:
- Omicron is more transmissible
- Omicron spike proteins evade immunity (natural or vaccination)
- Omicron antibodies offer protection against Delta
The doctor said that means it may become the predominant variant.
“It is somewhat milder, although we did have a lot of hospitalizations, and deaths,” she explained. “Hopefully, as we move forward, we will see variants that are less lethal.
Still, the doctor warned that virus evolution can be unpredictable so there are no guarantees that future mutations will function like the milder omicron variant. However, she said a long-lasting virus will likely mutate into something more like the common cold and become less deadly over time.
“A smart virus would want to get, you know, perhaps less virulent, even if it gets more transmissible. So, it can be in the maximum number of people right and not kill off the host,” explained the doctor. “That being said, evolution is not that simple. It can be random and unpredictable. So, it can mutate towards something less extreme, but it can also go the other way. We can't necessarily guarantee which way it's going to go.”
Dr. Durbhakula doesn’t think we will eradicate the disease – like we did smallpox - because COVID-19 carries a specific trait: the virus exists in animals; as long as that is true, she said it will be very difficult to eradicate.
However, she sees COVID-19 transitioning from a pandemic to a more manageable endemic.
“Which is really something more stable, something more predictable, and something that we can live with,” she explained. “The flu can be deadly, but it's not unpredictable. We know what we are expecting every year. So, I think that's where we're heading.”