ROCKVILLE, Md. — Halfway through his Senate campaign bus tour through Maryland, former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R) came across quite at ease as the admitted underdog. Utilizing an almost passive campaign style once prevalent during a long-since-forgotten era in politics, Hogan, it seems, doesn't want the job of a Senator as much as others want it for him.
His idealistic tone of, 'I'm going to change the political culture, it's not going to change me,' might otherwise be passed off as a typical campaign bloviation if not for his unapologetic criticism of former President Donald Trump and his willingness to openly criticize certain decisions by national Republicans as misguided and hyper-partisan; needling some of the same Republicans who urged him to run. Key among the group that helped convince Hogan to run for the seat being vacated by retiring third-term Senator Ben Cardin (D) was former President George W. Bush.
"I think you have an important voice for the party and the country," said Hogan while recounting the conversation with Bush. "Even if you're not looking for a job as a senator, we need you to."
So, what is it about Hogan's 'voice' that former President Bush finds to be necessary?
"I'm trying to get my party back on the right track," said Hogan. "Get back to a bigger tent party with a more positive and hopeful message that can appeal to more people."
Meeting Monday with members of the Montgomery County Small Business Association at Twin Valley Distillers in Rockville, Hogan told the crowd he expected this Senate battle to be the hardest race in the country.
"I am by far the huge underdog," Hogan said while acknowledging recent polling that showed him in a statistical dead heat with both of the Democrat candidates, Rep. David Trone and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, in hypothetical matchups.
Hogan navigated eight years as a popular Republican governor in the bluest of blue, Democrat-dominated states. Polling shows his popularity continues to be high in the nearly two years since he left office.
But while voters in Maryland clearly like him, recent polling shows, they overwhelmingly do not want Republicans in the Senate Majority. Hogan is confident Republicans will win the Senate in November and argues Maryland voters would be better served with a seat at the majority table.
"There are people who think I did a great job as Governor. They really like me but they’re trying to reconcile that. I’m pretty sure the bluest state in America is not going to be the deciding factor," Hogan said. "I think there’s a great deal of certainty Republicans are going to have a majority and I think having a reasonable, sensible voice that’s making a difference in that caucus is probably going to be more effective for them than some random freshman Democrat.”
Assuming Hogan wins the Maryland Republican Primary on May 14, he faces the dual challenges of having to win over both Democrats AND pro-Trump supporters. This year will be the first election where both Trump's and Hogan's names appear on a ballot together. According to data compiled by Pew Research, the percentage of states electing a president of one party and a Senator of a different party has dramatically declined over the last 40 years.
In fact, it didn't happen at all when Donald Trump won the 2016 election and it only happened once in 2020, when Maine elected President Biden while re-electing Republican Susan Collins.
"If people just vote straight party line, there's no question I'm going to lose the race," Hogan said with a chuckle. “It would be nearly impossible [to draw a distinction from Trump] if I were somebody new to the scene. But the people of Maryland have known me since 2014 when I was elected. They know exactly what I’m all about. They know what my track record is. And they know, and the polling shows, they know I’m not the same. And it’s exactly what’s missing in Washington."
Abortion is among the issues that voters in Maryland are concerned with. Monday, former President Trump released a statement saying he believes the issue should be left up to the individual states to decide. I queried Hogan about his possible support for any change in federal law regarding abortion.
“I haven’t seen all the specific legislation but I’ve said I wouldn’t vote for any national abortion ban," Hogan said. "I don’t know yet about what kind of... how we’re going to come up with a piece of legislation to codify Roe. I think it’s going to be something we’re going to have to talk about over the next seven months. But I’ve got a very clear and moderate position on this issue. I’m not a cookie-cutter Republican.”
If he is elected, Hogan says party loyalty would not dictate how he would vote on a potential Supreme Court nominee. Supreme Court justices are nominated by the president and require Senate approval. In his role as Governor, Hogan nominated nearly 200 judges to the bench in Maryland.
"We just found the best people with the best judicial temperament and never once did I ask a single person what their party affiliation was or ask them to take a line in the sand position on any issue," Hogan said. "I just tried to figure out, does this person have the qualifications and the qualities to make a good judge? All these people with litmus tests and you have to say yes or you have to say no – that’s just not the way it's intended to be."
Senate terms last six years, while presidential terms last four years. Hogan in the past has considered overtures suggesting he seek the White House but has ultimately turned those down. I asked if he would commit to serving all six years of a Senate term if elected.
"That comes up all day, every day. Some people saying 'We wish you were running for president' or 'We hope you’ll run for president.' I’m obviously not going to look to the next job while I’m working on the first job," said Hogan.
I followed up to ask for a more concrete answer.
"I’m not ruling anything out. You never know. The country’s a mess and if duty calls," he responded. "They were trying to get me to run in ’20. They were trying to get me to run in ’24. I can’t rule out ’28.”
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