VIRGINIA, USA — Election Day may seem like it's still ages away, but Virginia voters will have an opportunity to take to the polls and make their voices heard in less than two weeks. Virginia is one of 14 states hosting its presidential primary on March 3, otherwise known as Super Tuesday, when one-third (1,357) of the Democrats' 3,979 pledged delegates are determined. The commonwealth has 99 pledged delegates to throw to a candidate.
Only Democratic candidates will be on the primary ballot in Virginia, since the state's Republican Party canceled its primary and selected incumbent president Donald Trump as its candidate at the Republican National Convention. However, Virginia has an open primary, and any voter may participate in a primary regardless of party identification.
Michael Bloomberg is currently tied with Sen. Bernie Sanders amongst Virginia voters, garnering 22 percentage points according to the latest Monmouth University poll released Tuesday. Joe Biden trails the two men at 18%, followed by Pete Buttigieg (11%), Amy Klobuchar (9%), and Elizabeth Warren (5%). Another 11% of likely primary voters remain undecided and do not lean toward any candidate at this time.
Among those who identify themselves as Democrats in the commonwealth, Sanders (22%), Biden (21%), and Bloomberg (20%) are on equal footing. Other candidates get less support among self-identified Democrats, including Buttigieg (13%), Klobuchar (7%), and Warren (6%). Among those who call themselves independents (plus a small number of self-identified Republicans), Bloomberg (25%) and Sanders (23%) share the lead, followed by Biden (13%), Klobuchar (13%), and Buttigieg (8%), with Warren getting only 2%.
Monmouth's poll found that only 25% of likely Virginia Democratic primary voters are "firmly set" on their candidate choice with 18% saying there is a high possibility they would vote for a different candidate than the one they currently are leaning towards; 34% said there was a moderate chance they'd change their mind and 11% said the chances were low.
Virginia voters are looking for electability, as 62% say beating Trump is more important to their vote than lining up with a candidate on any policy issue. Another 22% say electability is as important as their top policy concern while just 14% say it is less important than issue alignment. Among those who say beating Trump is their top priority, 23% support Biden, 23% support Bloomberg, and 17% support Sanders. Among those who say it is not a top priority, 31% support Sanders and 21% back Bloomberg.
A candidate needs 1,990 pledged delegates to win the party's presidential nomination. Nationally, after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, Buttigieg leads the pledged delegate count at 23, with Sanders following at 21, Warren at eight, Klobuchar at seven and Biden in last with six.
Ninety delegates are still up for grabs before Super Tuesday commences, with Nevada's Caucus on Feb. 22 and South Carolina's primary on Feb. 29.
The Monmouth survey was conducted by telephone from Feb. 13 to 16, 2020 with 400 Virginia voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on March 3, 2020.