ANNAPOLIS ROCK, Md. — Despite Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan polling 64% positive among the state’s Republicans, one-term state delegate Dan Cox is a threat to win against former Maryland Secretary of Commerce Kelly Schulz, who's endorsed by Hogan, according to Dr. Mileah Kromer who oversees the Goucher Poll.
"I think it's going to be a very competitive race,” said Kromer on the eve of the state's primary election.
She pointed to former President Donald Trump's endorsement of Cox as a major factor.
"While I'm not sure if the Trump endorsement is enough to bring him over the finish line victorious tomorrow, I do know that without the Trump endorsement, it is unlikely that this race would have been as competitive as it is now," Kromer said.
Cox Supporters recorded a telephone rally with Donald Trump for Cox on June 24. Cox appeared July 11 on Steve Bannon’s WarRoom podcast, where Cox repeated Trump and Bannon's discredited claims about the past election. Cox vowed to bring a major oil refinery to the state.
Schulz, however, calls Cox "a lying conspiracy theorist who is a danger to our party and our state.”
She has called out the Democratic Governor’s Association for spending more than $1 million in advertisements to focus on Cox as an opponent, which she called a dirty trick designed to make her look like a lesser threat. The Democratic Governor's Association denies the charge.
Hogan called it the worst kind of hypocrisy.
"The Democrats are so scared of losing again, that they are now enabling, emboldening and embracing a Q-Anon conspiracy theorist, someone who bused people to the Capitol on January 6, and called Vice President Pence a traitor as the capital was under attack," Hogan said.
Kromer said Cox is virtually unelectable in the general election because her polling shows few Democrats and Independents are willing to cross over to support any candidate endorsed by Trump. No modern Republican has ever won a statewide election in Maryland without significant support from Democrats and Independents, Kromer said.
“Our polling suggests that Democrats are not interested in voting for a Trump-aligned candidate," Kromer said. "Only one type of Republican is electable in the state -- and that looks like Larry Hogan."
The latest Goucher poll showed 44% of likely GOP voters said they were still undecided, while 47% said they could still change their mind.