RICHMOND, Va. — As mask mandates and education dominate the first half of Virginia’s 2022 General Assembly, abortion rights may be poised to make a dramatic entrance into the conversation at the Capitol.
An effort to ban the procedure after 20 weeks is now moving through the House of Delegates, introduced late last month by Culpeper Delegate Nick Freitas (R).
The measure could pass with a united Republican majority in the House, and if it reached the Senate floor, the bill would need one Democratic vote to clear the nearly evenly divided chamber.
The bill may have found its one vote across the aisle Thursday, with a signal of support from pro-life Senator Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond).
“I'm inclined to support Delegate Freitas' bill - HB 1274,” Morrissey wrote in an email. “I have supported fetal pain bills since my days in the House of Delegates.”
The point at which fetal pain develops is disputed, with the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists writing, “this capacity does not develop until the third trimester at the earliest, well past the period between 20 weeks and viability.”
A ban after 20 weeks would be a significant shift in Virginia – the commonwealth now allows abortions until 27 weeks, the beginning of the third trimester. The procedure is permitted in the final trimester when the health of the mother is in jeopardy.
Morrissey has voiced personal opposition to abortion, yet reiterates his belief that the government should largely remove itself from women’s healthcare decisions.
The senator relishes a fiercely independent reputation, a member unafraid of bucking his own party.
“Senator Morrissey is not just a maverick, you could really think of him as a maverick squared,” said Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington.
“That means, we are talking about a highly unpredictable senator. There is an opportunity for Republicans to bring him on board on the abortion question.”
Farnsworth noted the next logical move for Democrats would be to ensure the abortion bill never reaches the Virginia Senate floor.
Because Democrats hold a 21-19 majority in the chamber, they control every Senate committee – the first stop before bills reach a full floor vote.
Committees feature a smaller number of lawmakers voting, each member chosen by party leadership.
Senate Democrats at the committee level have already prevented two major education priorities pushed by Governor Youngkin from reaching the Senate floor – a bill banning critical race theory in K-12 schools (which is not taught in any Virginia K-12 school), and a GOP-backed charter school bill.
“The likelihood of abortion becoming illegal after 20 weeks in Virginia is still less than 50-50, because Democrats still have significant control over issues getting to the Senate floor and getting out of committee,” Farnsworth said.
“Even if Democrats might lose a senator on the floor, they might be able to bottle a bill up, before it gets to the floor itself.”
If the bill were to reach a full vote with each party united, save one Democratic senator, the vote would be 20-20. Republican Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears would then intervene to break the tie, sending any bill passed first by the House to the governor’s desk.
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