WASHINGTON — There was intense trepidation that the 2018 Unite the Right 2 rally could live up to its namesake, serving as a sequel to Charlottesville and unleashing violence in the nation’s capital. Police prepared for hundreds of alt-right protesters, as the event garnered attention on social media channels and in the global press.
But ultimately, only a few dozen provocateurs boarded a train at the Vienna / Fairfax-GMU Metro station to begin their pilgrimage. When they alighted in Foggy Bottom, their bullhorns were drowned out by the jeers of a city that knew they were coming.
Far-right protesters were dwarfed in size and spirit on Aug. 12, 2018. What was supposed to conclude in a crescendo in Lafayette Park ended awkwardly without ceremony, in a whimper.
Could the same dynamic unfold on Saturday, when events promoted by conservative conspiracy theorists and white nationalists converge in Freedom Plaza?
“The reason that was such a small number of people in 2018, versus the year before in Charlottesville, was the lawsuits and criminal charges that were pending related to the homicide of counter-protester Heather Heyer,” retired FBI special agent Tom O’Connor said. “The people organizing the Unite the Right 2 rally were being sued civilly, and there was also internal strife within the organizations that brought the event together, which happens very often in extremist activity.”
O’Connor served for 23 years on the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force in the Washington field office, and now serves as principal consultant with FEDSquared Consulting LLC.
Faced with the preliminary details of the weekend events and a far-right social media ecosystem seemingly unwilling to accept President Trump’s defeat, O’Connor said the outcome of this weekend's demonstrations will be far more difficult to predict than the events of August 2018.
“My fear is that, as we go forward through this cycle, moving towards the inaugural, the side that feels like they’ve had this election stolen from them, you’re going to have extremist elements in these groups, that could act out in lone offender violence,” O'Connor said. “That would be unfortunate for the country, but it is far from unlikely.”
O'Connor stressed the careful balancing act federal and District law enforcement will be undertaking - protecting First Amendment assemblies while monitoring the main events and peripheries for potential violence.
"On the outsides of these protected activities, you're going to have fringe elements that have violence in their nature," he said. "And some of these groups you're hearing about have had individuals who pare off to do violent actions."