Wacky Weather and Possible Late Weekend Storm

Wow! What a stretch of weather we've had. Temperatures have been running some 25 to 30 degrees above average since Monday with Records set on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front has pushed through the region and that will usher in some cooler weather for Thursday as highs only approach 50 and some rain moves in late.

The rain will be with us for part of the day on Friday as we once again approach 60.

Things change over the weekend though. Colder air moves in and late Sunday, a storm system approaches from the Gulf Coast. This track could provide some wintry weather around here as we go into Sunday night and Monday morning.

The GFS model from Wednesday morning shows an area of low pressure in the early hours of Monday, the 14th pulling away from the North Carolina Coast. (Click image to enlarge.). In this case, the storm would more than likely be too far south and east to do much around the DC region. But we are 100 hours away from this time frame and a shift of a couple of hundred miles, which isn't that much in the world of synoptic modeling, could have a big difference.

The ECMWF from Tuesday night has an area of low pressure along the North Carolina coast for Sunday evening. Again, just a tad too far south and East, but given how close it is, it certainly bears watching.

As for the type of precipitation, temperatures look cold enough Sunday night into Monday morning that I expect snow to be the predominant precipitation type.