Snow Today and Sleet and Freezing Rain and Rain....

We'll see just about everything fall from the skies across the region this Thursday. And I have to admit that it is a very tricky forecast. One that, even as the system is on our doorstep, still has me scratching my head.

The National Weather service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory around the DC Metro west of I-95 and a Winter Storm Warning for our western counties.

While I can see perhaps a couple of inches of accumulation, especially on grassy surfaces, I must admit that I'm struggling to reconcile some other forecasts that are calling for 3"-6" across the northern Shenandoah valley into northern Maryland. I see areas north and west of DC holding on to a mix or even freezing rain for a while on top of the snow and that could add .10"to .20" of ice on top of the 1"-2". I suppose I could even see locally 3" before the changeover, but it is a troubling thing when you are alone in your thinking. What am I "not" seeing that leads me to think this way? What can I learn about what I do from this storm? Temperatures during the day will be pretty close to freezing if not slightly above in many areas in the metro, If the snow is heavy enough, it can stick, even with temperatures above 32. But if it is light, then it will melt on the roads and only stick to grassy areas and remote lightly traveled roads.

I see that some schools in the warning area have closed for the day. As they will likely get some freezing rain for a while on top of the snow, I can't really argue that one.