The Democratic Mayoral Primary!

 

The latest poll for WUSA9 shows that Council Chairman Linda Cropp has reduced Adrian Fenty’s lead in the Democratic Mayoral primary; while this gives Cropp added ammunition to go with her TV attack ads on Fenty’s performance as an attorney, there is no really good news in the poll for the Cropp. She does climb to 35 % among likely voters; that’s an eight point jump from just two weeks ago; but Fenty still has 45% support. He loses only three points from a couple of weeks ago. Cropp cut into Fenty’s 21 point lead two weeks ago, not by stealing Fenty voters, but by luring support from voters fleeing the losing campaigns of Vincent Orange and Michael Brown. Marie Johns gets only 9 percent in the Channel 9 poll.  What really hurts Cropp, in my opinion is that the poll shows only 4% of the likely voters still undecided with less than two weeks before the September 12^th Primary. If she gets the entire 4% she still can’t overtake Fenty’s 10 point lead. The only suspense left in the DC Mayoral campaign at this point appears to be the Washington Post endorsement! If Marc Fisher’s columns and other private comments from Post reporters are any indication, Adrian Fenty seems a lock to get the newspaper’s nod; Of course that would put the Post editorial board and Donald Graham on the opposite side of Washington’s business community which is supporting Linda Cropp. But they have a building full of accomplished wordsmiths over on 15^th street. The Post staff will certainly come up with the words to explain their choice. For one, I can’t wait to read the article. Better yet, to be a fly on the wall during the discussions over the candidates.     

Lets Get it Started!

DC Council Chairman Linda Cropp is acting like a candidate already on the ropes! I interviewed the Council Chairman Monday and when I asked if she would win the Democratic primary for Mayor she didn’t say yes! When I rephrased the question to ask if she is confident, she didn’t say yes! She merely said she felt good! A Washington Post Poll says she trails Adrian Fenty by ten points. A WUSA-TV9 Poll says she’s behind by almost twenty points and one can easily get the impression from the Cropp campaign that the numbers are fairly accurate. The consensus builder has resorted to negative campaigning, attacking Fenty at a personal level, a clear sign according to several people I’ve talked with that Ms Cropp’s advisors feel she loses if the primary is held right now. Fortunately for Cropp there are three more weeks to go…and anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of the voters appear to be undecided.

Look for the Washington Post endorsement to either end the contest or prolong it. If the Post editorial board endorses Fenty, It’s over! He wins easily! If the Post endorses Cropp, The campaign continues, although the Chairman isn’t assured the democratic nomination, Fenty could still win. If Cropp gets the endorsement and a series of Post editorials supporting her candidacy, similar to the Post treatment of Sharon Pratt several years ago, the Chairman could still pull this primary out. I also talked to Fenty on Monday. He says the negative campaigning is sending voters his way. He too refuses to predict victory and says he’s running like he’s ten points behind

 

Roane, politics and moving on!

What a lady! Congrats to my good friend and colleague Andrea Roane on her 25th anniversary at Channel 9! She's a great journalist and an incredible lady!

DC sources tell me that Mayoral frontrunner Adrian Fenty has given long shot challenger Marie Johns a date for that one on one debate that he reluctantly agreed to on live radio. The ward four councilman has told John's camp that he will meet her at 9am on a Saturday morning. Its a contest that Fenty clearly doesn't need and assumes with great risk to his frontrunner status. Council Chairman Linda Cropp is running second in the Democratic polls and won't be part of the debate; but here's guessing she will have someone in the audience keeping score. As for Johns, the former Verizon President; she's looking to break from the back of the pack where she is stuck with single digit support along with Michael Brown and Vincent Orange. Its a win win for her. Johns has done very well in the live forums.

DC City Administrator Robert Bob tells me he will announce his candidacy for President of the DC school Board. Unlike Mayor Tony Williams, Bobb has bought a house in the city (Crestwood NW) and appears ready to leave government and accept offers to take his vast public service resume to the private sector.